Global Protein Weekly Digest: The Supply Crisis For Holiday Dinners?
Supply crunch hits Thanksgiving dinner in the United States
Food and household supplies were 11% below normal as of Oct. 31, according to data from market research firm IRI. This figure is not far from the bare shelves of March 2020, when supplies were down 13%. Turkeys are particularly low in stock due to labor and supply issues. Many other holiday essentials, including cranberry sauce and pies, are already scarce. For grocery shoppers this holiday season, that means someone with a list of 20 items wouldn’t be lucky on two of them. According to the Farm Bureau, the average cost of making Thanksgiving dinner in 2020 was around $ 47, and it’s expected to cost up to 5% more this year.
Chinese meat imports drop to 20-month low in October
China imported 664,000 tonnes of meat in October, down 12.8% from a year ago and the lowest monthly total since February 2020, as building domestic pork production slumped prices and reduced demand for foreign supplies. In the first 10 months of this year, China’s meat imports totaled 8.1 MMT, down 1.5% from the same period last year.
Avian influenza discovered in Poland
The Polish Chief Veterinarian has confirmed two outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1? In commercial turkey fattening farms in central Poland. In infected holdings, the Veterinary Inspectorate implements all disease control measures in accordance with Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2020/687, including the slaughter of animals, cleaning and disinfection of the operation, and designation of protection and surveillance zones. The two outbreaks change the status of the country’s HPAI and will influence the possibilities of exporting Polish meat and poultry products to non-EU countries.
USDA Announces Faster Line Speed ââTest Program for U.S. Pork Plants
The USDA said on Wednesday that nine pork production plants in the United States could apply to operate faster processing line speeds in a one-year trial, after a federal judge overturned in March a Trump-era rule that removed line speed limits. In the pilot program, factories will implement worker safety measures through agreements with unions or worker safety committees. Factories will collect data on how line speeds affect workers and share it with OSHA and the data could be used to set future rules for the industry, the USDA said. Hog companies lost 2.5% of their slaughter capacity following the March court ruling, according to the National Pork Producers Council.
Americans are cutting back on steaks
Rising grocery prices in the United States are squeezing consumer spending. Supermarkets say shoppers are buying more store-brand meat products and switching from beef to cheaper alternatives like chicken or pork, after prices for products like rib eye soared by around 40 % from a year ago, according to research firm IRI. Food manufacturers ranging from Mondelez International to Kraft Heinz have raised prices in recent months to offset escalating costs for labor, raw materials and transportation.
USDA Monthly Livestock and Dairy Poultry Report: Higher Production Forecast in the United States
USDA’s forecast for total US red meat and poultry production in 2021 has been raised from last month.
- U.S. beef production is increased from the previous month due to higher slaughter of fed cattle and higher carcass weight.
- Pork production forecasts are raised slightly as heavier carcass weights more than offset the drop in slaughter expected in the fourth quarter.
- Forecasts for broiler production are based on recent hatchery and slaughter data.
- Turkey production is increased on September production data; no changes are made to the fourth quarter production forecast.
- The egg production forecast is raised based on recent production data and higher table egg production expected in the fourth quarter.
For 2022, the total forecast for red meat and poultry is slightly higher compared to last month. Beef and turkey production forecasts are raised, while pork and broiler chicken production forecasts are unchanged from last month. Egg production forecasts are raised from last month.
The beef import forecast for 2021 and 2022 is raised from last month due to strong domestic demand for beef. The 2021 beef export forecast is raised based on recent trade data and continued strong demand from major trading partners. There are no changes to the 2022 beef export forecast.
Pork exports are reduced according to September trade data; no modification is made to the forecasts for the peripheral periods.
The broiler export forecast for 2021 and 2022 is raised due to higher expected demand. The turkey export forecast for 2021 and 2022 is slightly up from last month. Livestock price forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are being raised due to firm and continuing demand.
Pork price forecast is reduced for the fourth quarter of 2021 due to recent low prices. This weakness is expected to continue in the first quarter of 2022 and the annual price forecast is lowered.
The price forecast for broilers and turkeys in 2021 and 2022 is increased from the previous month based on current prices and expected strength in demand.
The milk production forecast for 2021 and 2022 is reduced compared to the previous month due to a lower expected dairy cow count and slower growth of milk per cow. The forecast for fat-based imports for 2021 and 2022 is reduced due to the drop in expected imports of fat-based products. The fat export forecast for 2021 and 2022 is raised due to the expected higher exports of cheese and fat products. The base import forecast for skim solids for 2021 is raised while imports for 2022 are unchanged from last month. The base export forecast for skimmed solids for 2021 and 2022 is unchanged from last month. Butter, skimmed milk powder (NDM) and whey price forecasts for 2021 are raised from last month due to strong demand and lower production expected.
The cheese price forecast for 2021 is small compared to current prices and still large supplies. The Class III price forecast for 2021 is reduced from last month as the lower forecast price for cheese more than offsets the higher price for whey. Price forecasts for Class IV are raised due to higher prices for NDM and butter. The forecast for the price of all milk for 2021 is raised to $ 18.50 per cwt. For 2022, price forecasts for cheese, butter, NDM and whey are raised due to strong demand and lower milk supplies expected. The 2021 Class III and IV price forecasts are raised to WASDE-618-5 due to the higher price forecasts for dairy products. The price of all milk for 2022 is raised to $ 20.25 per cwt.
Hong Kong authorities detect COVID-19 virus in frozen cuttlefish imported from Malaysia
On November 3, the Hong Kong Center for Food Safety (CFS) announced that the surface sample test results of imported frozen cuttlefish slices and its inner packaging were positive for COVID-19. The positive samples were among 12 samples collected at the port of entry on November 2, 2021, from a sea shipment imported from Malaysia. The shipment contained 390 cartons of frozen cuttlefish slices weighing 3,100 kg. As part of its precautionary testing program, the CFS maintains hold and test measures whereby shipments are withheld until test results are available. Thus, the Malaysian shipment has been held in the warehouse of the importer and has not yet been cleared for distribution.